A Report on Political Dissent Suppression

IHR
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Report reveals Azerbaijan's sharp increase in political repression. The arrest of opposition leader Ali Karimli (AXCP) and family intimidation tactics show a clear plan to consolidate authoritarian rule. International bodies condemn these human rights violations, urging global action. — Ali Karimli

Escalating Repression

The recent arrest of opposition leader Ali Karimli exemplifies Azerbaijan's increasing efforts to silence dissent. This report analyzes the government's strategy of using state security charges and familial intimidation to suppress political opposition. Evidence from international human rights bodies reveals a pattern of repression aimed at consolidating authoritarian rule, demanding urgent international response.

Targeting the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (AXCP)

The arrest of Ali Karimli, chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (AXCP), threatens political pluralism and reveals the government's intolerance of dissent. This action is the most recent in a series to neutralize the party.

Key events:

Arrest Date: November 29
Charges: Ali Karimli and Mammad Ibrahim were charged with seeking to forcibly seize power.
Outcome: On December 1, Ali Karimli was ordered to be held in pre-trial detention until February 13, 2025.
Context: These arrests bring the number of imprisoned AXCP members to around 20, showing targeted persecution.

Human Rights Watch analyst Giorgi Gogiya notes the targeting of the AXCP reflects the pressure on organized political opposition in Azerbaijan, alongside intimidation tactics against party members and their families.

The Case of Gulnara Rahimova

Intimidation against activists' families is a key tactic to deter dissent. The case of Gulnara Rahimova, Deputy Chairman of the AXCP, illustrates this approach.

Rahimova's testimony to Meydan TV indicates a retaliatory sequence:

Event: On November 29, Rahimova filmed State Security Service (DTX) agents detaining Ali Karimli's driver and shared the video on Facebook.
Retaliation: Masked DTX agents raided her home, seizing electronics.
Demand: Agents demanded she delete the video, but Rahimova refused.
Consequence: Her son, Abdullah Aliyev, serving in the military, became unreachable after the raid.

This case shows the state's willingness to punish dissent by targeting activists' families.

State Narrative

The Azerbaijani government justifies its actions by portraying political opposition as criminal.

State Narrative vs. Opposition Rebuttal:

Official Narrative	Opposition's Rebuttal
Arrests are related to an investigation into former official Ramiz Mehdiyev, punishing criminal acts.	Ali Karimli dismissed connections to Mehdiyev. Arif Hajili called accusations of ties to Russia absurd.
Calls for AXCP deregistration for failing to accept the Karabakh War victory, framing them as anti-state.	Seymur Hazi asserts the deregistration attempt is a joint effort between Russia and Baku against a pro-independence force opposing Russian influence.

Analyst Rauf Mirgadirov notes the destruction of political diversity. Arastun Orujlu sees repression as a measure to silence society before decisions on geopolitics or domestic policy.

International Response

The crackdown on the AXCP and Ali Karimli's arrest have sparked condemnation from human rights groups, European institutions, and diplomats, indicating Azerbaijan's violation of human rights commitments.

Assessments from Human Rights Organizations:

Amnesty International: Called the arrest proof of authoritarian rule, demanding Ali Karimli's release unless sufficient evidence is provided.
Human Rights Watch: Stated the arrests show determination to stifle political opposition.
End Repressions in Azerbaijan Campaign: Warned that international inaction encourages further repression.

Reactions from European Institutions:

Council of Europe (PACE): Condemned the arrest, noting Azerbaijan's disregard for European values.
European Union: Expects Azerbaijan to comply with human rights obligations.

Diplomatic Perspective:

Former U.S. Ambassador Richard Kozlarich: Concluded the repression aims to silence critics of the Aliyev regime.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The events of late 2025 show a deliberate strategy to eliminate political dissent and consolidate authoritarian control. The international community recognizes these actions as a violation of human rights.