Azerbaijan's Shifting Sands: Diplomacy, Domestic Debates, and Cross-Border Concerns

Recent weeks have seen a complex interplay of diplomatic shifts, internal policy debates, and concerning reports affecting Azerbaijani citizens both at home and abroad. From easing tensions with a key strategic partner to critical peace talks and ongoing challenges to media freedom, Azerbaijan continues to navigate a multifaceted geopolitical and domestic landscape.

A period of diplomatic tension between Baku and Moscow, marked by mutual notes at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) level, appears to have begun de-escalating earlier this week. Statements from Russia affirmed Azerbaijan as a "strategic and reliable partner." Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President's press secretary, emphasized that Russia and Azerbaijan should remain close partners and allies, and that all emerging issues should be resolved constructively.

However, this diplomatic thaw has been accompanied by actions that suggest underlying friction. Moscow recently banned dairy products from two Azerbaijani companies, with "Rosselkhoznadzor" citing the producers' refusal to undergo Russian inspection. In a separate development, Elshan Ibrahimov, the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Moscow region, was deported from Russia, having previously been stripped of his Russian citizenship.

Amidst these diplomatic shifts, an internal debate regarding the Russian language's role in Azerbaijan's education system has resurfaced. An earlier message, circulated by pro-government media and later denied by the Russian MFA spokesperson, suggested that "Russian schools might be closed." This message was subsequently "removed from the agenda" at the level of Azerbaijan's Minister of Science and Education.

Despite this official stance, many critics view the potential cessation of Russian language education at state expense as a strategic move for Azerbaijan to distance itself from Russia. They argue that the Russian language undeniably serves as a soft power tool for Russia, particularly within the former Soviet sphere. This perspective was seemingly reinforced by news reported in Russia's "Vedomosti" newspaper: the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), commissioned by the Russian MFA, will conduct a sociological study to assess how the Russian language is promoted abroad, especially in Azerbaijan. Interestingly, media outlets that had initially questioned state support for Russian-language education during the Moscow-Baku tension remained silent on this particular news.

Public opinion on the matter appears divided, reflecting what Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's survey in Baku described as the government's "balanced" policy. Some respondents argued that "Russian schools should have been closed long ago, because education in Russian cannot be at the state's expense," while others countered, "Closing schools is not the solution. The more languages you know, the better."

Further highlighting Azerbaijan's complex external relations, a meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders in Abu Dhabi on July 10 garnered significant attention. The meeting, which lasted several hours, followed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's expression of hope for a swift peace agreement between the parties just two days prior, raising expectations for substantial progress.

The outcome of the Abu Dhabi meeting indicated that the leaders evaluated achievements in the border delimitation process and issued instructions to state commissions. Experts speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty interpreted the bilateral format of this meeting as a sign of reduced dependence on both Western and Moscow mediation, suggesting a more direct approach to peace.

Beyond geopolitical maneuvers, reports have surfaced highlighting challenges faced by Azerbaijani citizens and the state of media freedom within the country.

In Russia, officers from the Internal Security Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs reportedly uncovered and prevented illegal activities by several police officers in the Vsevolozhsk district of the Leningrad region. An official statement indicated that since 2023, a number of officials, including the district police leadership, had been "patronizing" businessmen operating in the district in exchange for money. The investigation revealed that migrants, reportedly from a neighboring country, engaged their compatriots in labor activities and sold alcoholic beverages and tobacco products of dubious origin. On July 10, searches and arrests were carried out at the residences and commercial establishments of the accused individuals and the businessmen, who Russian media reports identified as being of Azerbaijani origin.

As Azerbaijan prepares to mark the 150th anniversary of its press on July 22, the reality for many journalists remains grim. Despite official statements like that from MP Vugar Rahimzade at an event titled "The Role of National Leader Heydar Aliyev in Media Development," where he asserted that "freedom of speech is a priority of state policy," the situation on the ground tells a different story.

Currently, at least 20 journalists are imprisoned in Azerbaijan, including Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist and economist Farid Mehralizade. They face charges ranging from smuggling and tax evasion to other accusations. These journalists consistently maintain that the accusations are baseless and that their arrests are a direct consequence of their critical and investigative journalism. While government officials deny the existence of political arrests, both local and international human rights organizations contend that independent media in Azerbaijan is being suppressed and demand the release of those unjustly detained. The Baku Court of Appeal has been reviewing appeals against the extension of pre-trial detention measures for journalists arrested in the "MeydanTV case" since last week, and has, as a rule, not granted them.

Azerbaijan finds itself at a pivotal moment, navigating the complexities of regional diplomacy and internal governance. While there are signs of de-escalation in its relationship with Russia and cautious optimism regarding peace talks with Armenia, the ongoing debates about cultural influence and, more critically, the documented challenges to media freedom and the welfare of its citizens abroad, underscore the multifaceted nature of the path ahead.