The Turtle-paced Progress of Democracy, or What Is Ilham Aliyev Afraid Of?

Tofig Yagublu

Written by Tofig Yagublu, imprisoned member of the National Council and Musavat Party

It is a grave misconception to say that Azerbaijan's law enforcement agencies and courts function very poorly. They did operate very poorly 10–15 years ago. Now, they do not function at all—their legally defined duties have been entirely prohibited. At this stage, their operations are limited to carrying out unlawful orders issued from the Presidential Administration or from other high-ranking officials. These orders typically aim to fabricate absurd charges and impose long-term imprisonment on opposition members, civil society representatives, including journalists—essentially anyone who fights for or promotes the establishment of a democratic and lawful governance system in the country.

Over the years, the regime has turned thousands of citizens into criminals in the eyes of the law by involving them as judges, investigators, prosecutors, police officers, victims, and witnesses in the process of fabricating charges and jailing completely innocent individuals. Morally speaking, it has severely corrupted them. Any illegal and absurd instruction from above is immediately embraced and executed. Not a single honest and courageous person has yet been found within this apparatus to refuse to carry out such unlawful orders. As a result, for the regime, it has become as easy as drinking water to fabricate any ridiculous charge and throw any undesired individual behind bars.

If the regime so desired, it could punish us for crimes we supposedly committed before we were even born—or for those we “will commit” 15 years from now. The relevant institutions and personnel are ready and waiting, provided the command comes from the “center of the universe.” This is precisely why it has become routine for me to hear, during my weekly phone calls home, that new individuals—particularly members of the Popular Front close to Ali Karimli—are being framed and imprisoned.

In such a system, those accused have no chance of defending themselves. Alibis, irrefutable evidence, witness testimonies, and other defense tools are all rendered meaningless. For instance, during the nearly ten-month trial on fraud and forgery charges brought against me, I completely dismantled the accusations in a way no fool or dimwit could deny, and I proved my innocence. Furthermore, I used literary and civil language to appropriately describe those who lied, supported false accusations, or issued sham verdicts. Imagine—judges and prosecutors of the Baku Serious Crimes Court and the Baku Court of Appeal

swallowed those words like honey and still issued fake verdicts.

Ilham Aliyev has completely stripped state and public institutions of their authority and corrupted them morally—these are the institutions that should be preventing or at least objecting to the crimes of the repressive apparatus. Parliament, government bodies, the Ombudsman’s Office, NGOs, and the media are all appointed by the regime, and their sole duty is to applaud every action taken by the head of state and his team.

Look now—state prosecutors are seeking 11 to 12 years in prison for Abzas Media journalists. We all know full well they are innocent. These brave journalists have been shamelessly framed for exposing, with clarity and evidence, how the Aliyev regime has stolen public funds through various fraudulent schemes. In doing so, they have served both their profession and their country with honor. Naturally, a court operating on political orders will convict them. Every representative of civil society who has been framed and imprisoned over the past year and a half faces the same fate that awaits me and the Abzas journalists.

So what is to be done? Should we despair and say, “There’s no hope for this struggle”?

Even if global distraction with its own affairs has emboldened Azerbaijan’s government to escalate repression, we must still believe in the positive prospects of the struggle for democracy. Yes, the situation in our country is dire and clearly bound to worsen. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility that the leaders of the National Council, the Popular Front Party, and the Musavat Party could also be arrested. But believe me, what I’m about to say is not propaganda. Ilham Aliyev’s full activation of the repression machine actually signals that he is not confident in himself. It shows he recognizes that society does not support him and understands that the people will switch to the opposition at the first opportunity. These steps are not pragmatic—they are impulsive, reflexive, and desperate responses.

It’s simple logic: if a person wears all their thick clothes, wraps themselves in a blanket, and cranks the stove up to its limit, it means they are freezing. That’s exactly what Ilham Aliyev’s unleashing of the full force of the repression machine means—he is terrified. Terrified of the opposition, terrified of the people, terrified of justice. So don’t lose heart. We’ve already come a long way, and everything will be alright.

Keep fighting.Long live democracy, down with dictatorship!