US Proposes American Control for Zangezur Corridor, Signaling Shift in South Caucasus Influence

Amidst escalating tensions in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, the Trump administration has reportedly put forth a significant proposal: US business entities would take control of the highly contested "Zangezur corridor." This move, if realized, could fundamentally reshape regional power dynamics, effectively sidelining Russia from a crucial transportation artery in the South Caucasus.

The "Zangezur corridor" is a proposed route intended to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenia's Syunik province. While Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly insisted on its opening, the corridor's inclusion has been a significant sticking point in the long-stalled peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Despite reports in March that both nations had agreed on the text of a peace agreement, it remains unsigned. Armenian officials attribute this delay to Azerbaijan's conditions, which include demands for Armenia to remove territorial claims concerning Azerbaijan from its constitution and formally request the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. The corridor itself is notably absent from the current draft of the peace agreement.

According to Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center, the Trump administration's new plan was reported on July 1, citing unnamed sources. The core of the proposal involves entrusting the control and management of cargo transportation through the corridor to an American company, thereby removing Russian oversight from the process. Conflictologists suggest that this plan, coupled with the broader agreement to sign a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, is a primary driver behind the current strain in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, signaling a concerted effort to diminish Russia's regional influence.

Vartanyan posits that the United States is perhaps the sole actor capable of reviving the stalled negotiations. She notes that the American proposal, while unique in its strategic logic, bears resemblance to a model previously suggested by the European Union. That earlier EU concept, based on a 2008 Russia-Georgia agreement, envisioned an independent Swiss company managing routes through disputed territories like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, responsible for sharing logistical information with all stakeholders. The American approach, however, emphasizes an American business entity as the guarantor of the agreement, a precedent Vartanyan compares to a recent rare metals deal in Ukraine.

The analyst suggests that Washington appears resolute in advancing this proposal, driven in part by President Trump's aspiration for a Nobel Peace Prize. While one option could involve pressuring Baku to drop its constitutional demands on Armenia – potentially through a high-profile invitation to President Aliyev at the White House – Vartanyan believes it's more probable that the US will exert pressure on Yerevan to accept its model, even if it leads to further delays in achieving a final peace or keeps borders officially closed.

In response to inquiries regarding regional connectivity, Ani Badalyan, spokesperson for the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reiterated that unblocking transport infrastructure in the South Caucasus remains a crucial priority for Armenia. She highlighted Yerevan's "Crossroads of Peace" initiative, which aligns with regional connections and offers solutions acceptable to all interested parties. Badalyan also acknowledged that various international partners periodically present their ideas for normalizing Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, including opening transport infrastructure. As of now, official Baku has not publicly reacted to the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center's claims regarding the Trump administration's proposal.

This bold initiative by the Trump administration to insert American business interests directly into the management of the Zangezur corridor represents a significant geopolitical maneuver. It underscores a potential shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus, challenging Russia's traditional role and introducing a new layer of complexity to the long-standing peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The coming weeks will likely reveal more about the reception and feasibility of this ambitious American plan.