Ukraine at a Crossroads: Intense Diplomacy, Shifting Frontlines, and International Support Efforts

Amidst ongoing conflict and recent large-scale Russian attacks, international diplomatic efforts are intensifying to find a resolution to the war in Ukraine, with a focus on security guarantees and potential high-level peace talks. Around ten countries are reportedly ready to deploy their troops to Ukraine as part of a possible peace agreement.

International Support and Security Guarantees

A working group dedicated to developing security guarantees for Ukraine is currently being led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. European officials discussed plans on 19 August to send British and French troops to Ukraine, including specific numbers and deployment locations. The British government has indicated that European military representatives will meet with their American counterparts soon to define "reliable security guarantees and prepare for the deployment of support forces" once hostilities cease.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte previously stated that a group of 30 nations, including Japan and Australia, has been working on a new security concept for Ukraine in recent months. These guarantees are intended to take effect after a long-term truce or a full peace agreement is reached. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confirmed his country's role in providing these guarantees, though specific actions are yet to be announced.

The security guarantee package is expected to be finalized this week, with its initial phase focusing on training Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel and strengthening their ranks. This effort will primarily involve European military specialists, who are to be stationed in Ukraine but away from the frontline. The US component of the plan includes support in intelligence sharing, border surveillance, arms deliveries, and potentially air defense systems.

US President Donald Trump has indicated that European countries are willing to deploy their own forces to Ukraine, and the US is prepared to provide resources, particularly air support, given its unparalleled capabilities. However, Trump has ruled out sending American troops to Ukraine. During an 18 August meeting at the White House, agreements were reached on a $100 billion arms deal and a $50 billion drone production contract between the US and Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that the next two weeks would be crucial for defining these security guarantees. He noted that operations by British, French, German, Turkish, and other forces would be non-provocative, conducted away from the front, and could involve air, sea, and land support.

Peace Negotiations and Summit Preparations

President Donald Trump is actively preparing for a direct meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Trump's discussions with Zelenskyy and several European leaders in Washington on 18 August, as well as a subsequent phone call with Putin. Trump mentioned that a trilateral summit involving all three leaders is planned after the initial bilateral meeting.

Several locations have been suggested for the meeting:

• Budapest, Hungary: Reuters cited a high-ranking source in the Trump administration as a possible location for the Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. Hungary, while an EU and NATO member, stated in 2023 it would not arrest Putin, despite an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant, and has begun procedures to withdraw from the ICC.

• Geneva, Switzerland: French President Emmanuel Macron proposed Geneva. Switzerland has indicated it would grant Putin immunity from ICC prosecution on its territory if the country is chosen for high-level peace talks.

• Rome and Vatican: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni raised this initiative.

Zelenskyy has expressed his "readiness" for a one-on-one meeting with Putin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov did not confirm the meeting but stated that Moscow is open to all formats, emphasizing the need for thorough preparation for high-level contacts.

Trump's overarching goal is to end the war, highlighting the high number of casualties, stating that "7,000 people are dying there every week". He believes that both sides will need to make concessions to achieve peace. US State Secretary Marco Rubio echoed this, stating that neither side would achieve a "100 percent victory," and that territorial issues and borders would be part of the discussions. However, some experts are skeptical, noting Russia's current gains might make Putin less inclined to make significant concessions. Russia also continues to assert that the involvement of NATO forces in any peacekeeping operation is unacceptable.

Territorial Disputes

The fate of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, is once again a key point in diplomatic discussions. Russia maintains that Crimea's status is settled and seeks international recognition for its annexation, which the international community has condemned as fraudulent. President Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not accept Russia's annexation of Crimea, as the Ukrainian constitution only permits territorial changes through a nationwide referendum. Trump has previously suggested "some land changes" in a potential peace agreement, possibly implying that Russia could retain Crimea and most of the Donbas, while withdrawing from occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Historically, Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev.

Recent Military Actions and Frontline Developments

In the night of 19 August, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine using 270 drones and ten missiles (five ballistic and five cruise missiles). Over 40 strikes were reported, including one by a Kh-101 cruise missile and three by Iskander-M ballistic missiles. The Poltava region, particularly Kremenchuk, suffered widespread damage, leaving over 1,500 people without electricity.

On the night of 20 August, Russian forces attacked Ukraine's Sumy and Odesa regions. Twelve people were injured in Okhtyrka, Sumy region, due to drone attacks, which damaged multi-apartment buildings, private homes, and garages. In the Odesa region, one person was injured, and large-scale strikes caused fires in fuel and energy infrastructure facilities in Izmail.

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported that on 17 August, Russian Lieutenant-General Esedulla Abachev was severely wounded near Rylsk, Kursk region, requiring the amputation of a hand and a leg.

On the frontlines, Russian troops recently broke through Ukrainian lines in Donbas, advancing 12-15 kilometers towards Dobropillia, creating a wedge due to Ukrainian manpower shortages. While Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked and recaptured some villages, inflicting hundreds of casualties on Russian troops, the breakthrough has not been fully eliminated. Russian forces are attempting new offensives to expand their foothold towards Kostiantynivka. Analysts note that both Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction have low troop density, contributing to the tactical maneuvers. Russia's current summer offensive aims to capture the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.

Other Significant Developments

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accused Russia of "deliberately" striking a petrol depot belonging to Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR in Odesa, calling it an attack on both Ukraine's and Azerbaijan's relations and energy security. This was the second attack on the SOCAR facility in August. In response, an Azerbaijani MP called for Baku to lift its arms sales embargo on Ukraine.

The Ukrainian state project "I Want to Live" reported that Russia recruited an additional 628 Tajik citizens into its armed forces in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to at least 1,559 since April 2025, with many sent to the front lines as "cannon fodder". Recruitment methods include offering Russian citizenship or financial payments, and sometimes involve beatings and threats of imprisonment. Notably, Tajik authorities have not prosecuted any of their citizens for participating in the war in Ukraine, citing dual citizenship as a reason for some.