Upcoming Abu Dhabi Meeting Highlights Progress and Hurdles in Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Process

Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan

Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, are set to hold a bilateral meeting on July 10 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This high-level discussion is a continuation of the ongoing peace process between the two South Caucasus nations.

The meeting was announced by the Press Service of the President of Azerbaijan. It marks the latest in a series of engagements aimed at normalizing relations. The two leaders last met on May 16 of this year in Tirana, Albania, during the 6th Summit of the European Political Community.

While significant progress has been made, a final peace agreement has not yet been signed, despite both sides announcing on March 13 that the text of a peace treaty had been agreed upon.

Azerbaijan has outlined specific conditions it believes must be met before the agreement can be formalized. These include the removal of what Baku perceives as territorial claims against Azerbaijan in the Armenian constitution. Additionally, Azerbaijan insists on the disbandment of the OSCE Minsk Group, which historically mediated peace talks and was co-chaired by the US, Russia, and France.

Armenia, for its part, considers the issue regarding the OSCE Minsk Group to be resolved. However, Yerevan argues that the constitutional matter should not impede the signing of the peace agreement. Some Armenian officials have also pointed to alleged territorial claims against Armenia within the Azerbaijani constitution, a claim that official Baku categorically denies. Despite these disagreements, Armenian officials have consistently stated their readiness to sign a peace agreement.

The international community continues to closely watch the developments and express support for a lasting peace. US Secretary of State Marko Rubio recently voiced optimism regarding a potential peace agreement, expressing hope that it could be achieved soon with Washington's backing. Speaking at a White House cabinet meeting on July 8, Rubio stated, "I hope that a peace agreement will soon be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia as well."

The long-standing Karabakh conflict, which escalated in the 1980s, led to significant clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the early 1990s, Azerbaijan's Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts were occupied. Azerbaijan subsequently restored its sovereignty over these territories following a 44-day war in 2020 and a one-day military operation in 2023.

Despite numerous rounds of negotiations in various formats over recent years, a comprehensive peace agreement has remained elusive. The upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi represents another crucial step in the complex, yet vital, journey toward a final resolution.